“Mozilla中国负责人、谋智网络董事长兼CEO宫力在官方博客上评价了最近的谷歌事件。
宫力根据自己的分析，总结认为如果谷歌真的要撤出中国，将有三个动作。
第一个动作，Google.cn服务将会被改为“离岸”(off shore)，服务器将被放置在香港等非中国大陆地区，但是这涉及到很多复杂的因素，比如音乐搜索，在非大陆地区可能存在版权问题。
第二个动作，谷歌将继续在中国大陆销售服务，但是如果这个撤退不小心行事的活，回个销售带来负面影响。
第三个动作，谷歌将保留中国的研发中心，但其作用和重要性将大大缩水，尤其在最近设计到“内 鬼”事件。
对于第三个动作，有网友的观点是，“内 鬼”事件是没有根据的，而且传言中的通过 隔 离 源代码来保护“核心技术”的做法也是可笑的。”
宫力提到，最初Google总部对于中国这边是很不放心的，总部的工程师来中国出差，甚至都不能拿日常使用的笔记本，只能用空白的笔记本。很明显，这种做法是害怕“核心技术” 泄 露 给 中 国 人，最近的Google 被 黑 事 件 有传言存在“内 鬼”，这样可能会导致进一步的技术封锁。
宫力原文摘录：
What Does It Really Mean for Google to Pull Out of China
http://blog.mozilla.com/ligong/2010/01/29/what-does-it-really-mean-for-google-to-pull-out-of-china/
The recent Google bombshell has certainly been heard around the world. Tons of coverage both in the US and in China — lots of headline echoes, some sensational nonsense, and very little substantial and knowledgeable analysis.
How will this movie play out? Let me spoil the plot here. My executive summary – not insider info from Google, just my own back-of-the-envelope analysis — is that (a) google.cn the service will move offshore, back to where it was. But the move has complicating factors that I will elaborate below; (b) Google will continue to sell their services in mainland China and earn revenue, but this may be negatively impacted if the pullout is not done carefully; (c) Google will keep its R&D center open, but its utility and importance is clearly diminished due to the pullout of the service offerings and the recent hacking incidence.
Now to the nitty-gritty. To understand what it might mean for Google to “pull out of China”, one has to understand what Google has inside China. It has, broadly speaking, three parts. It has the search service, Google.cn; a business team (including a sales force); and a R&D center. What Google the company has put a strong stake in the ground is with regard to its Google.cn service, and given the official statement contained in the bombshell, it does not appear to have any way out of this tangle, except for the service to move offshore, to HK for example. (Or, equivalently in search terms, just offer Google.com straight. The differences between Google.cn and Google.com lie not only in terms of content filtering but also in the other services that Google currently offer only in China – such as music search. (More on these other services later.)
How much will Google lose out by moving Google.cn offshore? You have to understand why Google brought it onshore in the first place. Back at that time, Google.com was reachable from inside China, but subject to sporadic blocking. Google figured that it needed a sufficiently pervasive presence to the Chinese audience. Otherwise, it may become irrelevant in China. Smart idea — look what happened subsequently to Facebook and Twitter – they are irrelevant in China because they are blocked early and thoroughly. Another less well known reason is that many places, especially university campuses, charged (and some still charge) students extra for international internet access. In order to reach these users, Google had to separately negotiate passageways with those gatekeepers (and often pay access fees) to make Google.com reachable from behind those walled gardens. Moreover, a local service would offer a platform to launch China focused services such as music search and download – a feature that has been often credited with cementing Baidu’s early dominance.
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阅读更多（Read more）
http://blog.mozilla.com/ligong/2010/01/29/what-does-it-really-mean-for-google-to-pull-out-of-china/
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